Saturday, July 30, 2011

The Three-Way battle

The three-way battle
                       by  Saurabh Somani
                                                     India may be under the cosh in the current series after losing the first Test, but when they walk out at Trent Bridge, they will be creating history of sorts. It will be the first time in nearly a century that the top two run-getters in Test cricket walk out for the same team. At Lord's, Rahul Dravid eased past Ricky Ponting on the list. He is still more than 2000 runs behind Sachin Tendulkar, but with three Tests to play before Australia start their series against Sri Lanka, Dravid has the opportunity to stretch his lead a little further. At the end of the Lord's Test, this is how the table for the top Test run-getters looks: 
                                                       Top Test run-getters: 

MatchesInningsNot OutsRunsAverage
Sachin Tendulkar178292321473856.68
Rahul Dravid154267311245352.77
Ricky Ponting152259281236353.52
Brian Lara13123261195352.89
Jacques Kallis145246381194757.44


                               It seems scarcely credible that Allan Border and Sunil Gavaskar - for the longest time the top two names in the list - are not even in the top 5 now. While Tendulkar's position at the top seems impregnable, the real battle will be for the Number 2 spot in the list. And while Dravid and Ponting are likely to jostle for that position for a while, the man who looks very well placed to displace them both is Jacques Kallis. 

                               Kallis has both form and age going for him. He is two years younger than Dravid and a year younger than Ponting, and his recent form has been nowhere as patchy as that of Dravid or Ponting. Here is how each of them has performed from 2010 onwards. 

Dravid, Ponting, Kallis - 2010 onwards: 

MatchesInningsNot OutsRunsAverage100s50s
Rahul Dravid17304119746.0452
Ricky Ponting1223181336.9516
Jacques Kallis12215146891.7582


                               Kallis' stats in comparison to the other two are phenomenal. In fact, among batsmen who have scored at least 10000 runs since the start of 2010, Kallis' average is the highest by some distance. All of which would suggest that if Dravid and Ponting want to maintain their current lead over the South African, they need to bat the way they did at their peak. Both Dravid and Ponting have had startling similarities in their career graphs. They debuted within a few months of each other (Dravid in June 1996 and Ponting in December 1995) and both were looked at as among the more prodigal batting talents of their respective countries. Both then enjoyed unprecedented success in the years 2002-2006, before experiencing a slump in form. Among batsmen who played at least 80 innings, Dravid and Ponting topped the charts for those years. 

Batting performances: 2002-2006 

MatchesInningsNot OutsRunsAverage100s50s
Ricky Ponting579914614172.252451
Rahul Dravid538812484163.701423
Jacques Kallis478213432362.651520
Brian Lara48852473257.011614
Matthew Hayden621129576455.962120


                                         There are a couple of interesting things about the table. While it is well acknowledged that Dravid and Ponting were the world's best batsmen in those years, Kallis hasn't been too far behind them, even when they were at their peak. Kallis' high average is due in part to the higher proportion of not-outs he has, but that is more a tribute to his iron defense and the oppositions' inability to break through him, since he bats in the top 4 and has no reason to have a higher proportion of not-outs. 

                                           What is also interesting is what happened after 2006 to both Dravid and Ponting. Dravid endured the worst slump of his life in the next two years, with runs hard to come by. Ponting didn't struggle quite as much, but was nowhere near the imperious '02-'06 years. Here is how the two performed in 2007 and 2008: 

Dravid and Ponting: 2007-2008 

MatchesInningsNot OutsRunsAverage100s50s
Ricky Ponting18311137445.8047
Rahul Dravid25476141134.4137


                                          For those who had seen Dravid at his best, the man who walked out to bat for India in the '07-'08 period seemed impossible to reconcile with the man who weathered everything the bowlers and the conditions had thrown at him in the preceding years. In a complete role-reversal, for these two years, Dravid had the lowest average among all men who had at least 1000 runs. Ponting had also endured a fall, but certainly not one as drastic as Dravid's. The trend seemed to indicate that while Dravid was on his way out, Ponting looked good for a few more years of good batting. 

                                          That is when Dravid turned things around, and though he hasn't quite recaptured his glory days, the nightmare is well and truly behind him. Ponting, on the other hand, has been on a steadily declining slope. Here is how the two of them stack up from 2009 onwards, when Dravid shook off his cobwebs. 

Dravid and Ponting: 2009 onwards 

MatchesInningsNot OutsRunsAverage100s50s
Ricky Ponting25462166637.86213
Rahul Dravid23405194455.5477


                                           The worrying thing for Ponting is that his has been a steady decline following the high of '02-'06. The next two years were respectable - if not world beating - but from 2009 onwards, it's been a clear struggle. At the same time, while Dravid too had reached a high in '02-'06, he hit his lowest point in the next two years. However, he arrested the slide and has been on a steady climb back. The contrast in fortunes has contributed to his finally over-taking Ponting's run tally. It also worth noting that in this same period, Kallis has scored 2000 runs at an average greater than 74. Given that only 500 runs separate Kallis from Dravid, it is fair to say that he is breathing down Dravid's neck, and doing it a lot better than Ponting who is only 100 runs away. However, what could paradoxically work against Kallis, is the fact that he hasn't had any extended form slump for a decade now. Probability would thus suggest that maybe one is due. Of course, given his gargantuan appetite for runs and a water-tight technique, it might never come. 

                                            Whether it does or doesn't - as Dravid's classical century at Lord's along with his recent resurgence show - Kallis will have to contend with the fact that Rahul Dravid is not quite done yet. 

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